Notes on the transactions we make, the sectors we watch, and the conviction behind both.

Open-weight models are closing in fast on the frontier: cheaper, nearly as capable, and taking real workload share. But the value isn't converging with them; it's flowing to whoever orchestrates the mess in between.

Public software stocks just had their worst year in a decade, even as guidance kept rising. The reason isn't growth. It's AI, and how differently the market is pricing it across business models.